Phillies best Braves’ rotation ranked
If you’re worried about 2024, don’t worry. The Phils have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, per Fangraphs.
I know this article is gonna drive some of you crazy. Wins Above Replacement is a valuable tool that tells a story about a team or a player or a group of players. It’s often a great way to evaluate a player’s worth, but very few people know how it’s calculated, and every website that uses it uses a different number.
There are some people who hate this because of some of the reasons mentioned above. But we also know that just using numbers like BA, ERA or OPS doesn’t always tell the full story.
So when I say the Phillies have the greatest pitching staff in baseball and I cite Fangraphs’ version ofWAR, I’m sure everyone will take it with a grain of salt.
Last year, the Phillies’ starters posted an fWAR of 17.7, significantly higher than the Minnesota Twins’ 16.5. Tampa Bay’s 15.5, the Padres’ 14.5 and the Mariners’ 14.4 were next closest.
The Phillies’ bullpen posted 6.8 fWAR, just behind the Dodgers’ 7.6 and just ahead of the Orioles’ 7.6.
It’s no surprise that Zack Wheeler leads the Phillies in fWAR (5.9), which is also the highest of any major league pitcher. The only other Phillies pitcher over five fWAR was Spencer Strider at 5.5, followed by Kevin Gausmann at 5.3, Sonny Gray at 5.3 and Gerrit Cole at 5.2, followed by Aaron Nola at 15th with a fWAR of 3.9. The rest of the rotation was rounded out by Tyler Skaggs at 2.5, Ranger Suarez at 2.4 and Christopher Sanchez at 1.8.
The fact that Nola’s fWAR was significantly higher than the 2.1 wRC+, which Baseball Reference uses, is because Baseball Reference uses FIP to compute the WAR totals and Baseball Reference uses ERA to calculate the fWAR. Nola’s ERA of 4.46 is higher than his FIP of 3.77. While Nola was no doubt victimized of the long ball in 2023, (his HR/9 was career high), his strikeout rate and walk rate were not spectacular, either. It was Nola’s lowest fWAR since 2019.
So what does all of this mean for the off-season? Well, first off, the starting rotation is back for 2024 and, assuming Wheeler gets the extension we all think he will get, that’s probably the rotation for two to three years after that. Walker’s signed through 2026; Suarez’s under team control through ’25; and Sanchez’s through ’28. It’s not reasonable to think the rotation will stay that long, but it explains why the Phils are not at the top of the line for a $300 million contract for Yoenis Cespedes or trading away some of their top prospects for Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes, etc. But the Phils do need to replace some of the production that Kimbrel gave them last season. Sure, Hoffman should take on a bigger role, and so should Kerkering. And maybe Conor Brogdon, or Andrew Bellatti, or maybe even Robert Stephenson (heck, yeah, adding a Hector Neris or Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson would be a smart move). No, Josh Hader wouldn’t.
You may not believe in fWAR. If you didn’t, I’d get it. It’s just one way to try to measure the quality of players. It’s not perfect. And if we’re being honest, I don’t think it would be fair to say that the Phillies’ pitching staff was the best in baseball last year.
But it was very good. And most of it is coming back in 2024.
