How much is it going to cost the Philadelphia Phillies to retain Zack Wheeler beyond the 2024 season?
Zack Wheeler signed a five-year $118 million contract with the Phillies after the 2019 season, making it one of the best free agent deals in team history. In the same winter, the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole to a nine-year $294 million deal, and the Nationals signed Stephen Strasburg to a seven-year $245 million deal.
Wheeler’s salary pales in comparison to what he has accomplished since first signing with Philadelphia in 2020. He has pitched in 101 games (101 starts) since then, with an ERA of 3.06 and a FIP of 2.90. He is eighth in the league in both ERA and FIP, and ninth in both ERA and WHIP. In addition, he has a 19.3 FWAR and a 19.6 BWAR over the last four seasons, the highest of any pitcher in the league. No other pitcher has been worth 18.0 FWAR and no other has been worth 16.0 BWAR. His remarkable combination of durability and consistency puts him in a league of his own.
In addition, when you factor in his performance in the playoffs, his numbers take on even more meaning. In 11 playoff starts, he’s gone 2.42 ERA with 63.1 innings pitched, bringing his season ERA down to 3.00. Simply put, if it weren’t for him, the Phils would not have made two NLCS appearances in a row.
In other words, the guy could stay in the locker room and bake cookies for the rest of next season and still be worth every cent of his seven-year, $118 million contract. He is one of the best players in baseball, but he’s being paid like a No. 2 / 3 starter.
Back at the start of the off-season, Phillies manager Pete Mackay mentioned a few things on his checklist. One of them was re-signing free agent right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola. Another was negotiating an extension with right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler, who is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2024 season.
“We would love to keep him here for a long time,” Mackay said at the time. “I know it’s not always easy, but it’s something I’m sure we’ll pursue. But I’m not sure how important that is to them right now.”
It’s safe to assume that “they” includes both Domingo Santana and his agent. If that’s the case, they won’t be too keen on signing an extension. But with another great year in 2024, the 25-year-old could be a free agent in free agency.
Still, it’s safe to assume that if the numbers add up, the Phils could persuade the veteran to reconsider. An extension could provide the veteran with some insurance policy in case he doesn’t perform well next year, and he’d no longer be subject to the escalating pressure of a walk year each time he takes the field.
As far as the Phillies are concerned, it’s not hard to imagine what they could accomplish with an extension for one of the game’s best players.
I wrote a few days ago that the Phillies would benefit from an extension to lower the AAV of a mega-deal like Harper’s for tax purposes. Obviously, that won’t happen here.
The Phillies’ AAV for Wheeler is too low for such a high-quality pitcher. The only way they could get below it would be to extend him into his 40s.
The only reason the Phillies would want to extend him now is to capitalize on the exclusivity of this offseason.
Wheeler is officially a free agent in November 2024, so he can’t negotiate with any other team until then. The Phillies are unlikely to make any significant moves in the winter, so the only thing they have is time.
There are no easy comparisons to make when it comes to a Zack Wheeler extension. After all, I said he was in a league of his own.
Starters like him are rare, to say the least. And it’s rare to see a pitcher as good as he is in his 30s. But here are some of our best comparisons:
If Hyun Jin Ryu’s deal is any indication, he hasn’t been anywhere near as consistent and dependable as he was when he signed that four-year $80 million deal.
Yu Darvish, on the other hand, was just a few years older than the Mets ace when he signed that six-year $110 million contract with the San Diego Padres.
Both Max Scherzer and Verlander were in their prime at the time they signed their mega-contracts with the Mets. But these are Hall-of-Fame-caliber players we’re talking about.
As good as the 26-year-old right-handed pitcher is, he won’t command a monster annual salary like either of them.
Then there is deGrom, the former Mets ace. When he’s on the mound, he’s one of the best players in baseball. When he signed that five-year $185 million contract with the Texas Rangers, Texas was paying for his upside. That’s the same upside that Wheeler will have next winter when he hits free agency.
All of this being said, I believe a good starting point for an extension for Wheeler would be somewhere in the middle of where Darvish is right now and where deGrom is right now.
Let’s say the midpoint of the annual salaries for both of these guys is $27,5 million. That seems like a reasonable number for a 5-year deal for Wheeler. That would be $137,5 million between 2025 and ’29, which would make him age-35 through 39.
Sure, he could command a higher annual exit value on a shorter deal, but a little longer deal will give him a higher guaranteed.
In fact, only one pitcher at 33 or older (deGrom) has ever signed a contract with more guaranteed money, and only three (Wheeler, Scherzer and Verlander) have ever signed contracts with higher average annual salaries.
