There are three reasons to worry about the Packers vs. Lions Thanksgiving night game.
3 Reasons Why Green Bay Packers Will Lose Again: The Detroit Lions are cruising to the NFC North championship after trouncing Green Bay Packers 30-0 in Week 4 of the season.
When the Green Bay Packers faced the Detroit Lions at home in Week 4, it was a 27-3 deficit at the half. The Lions had a 284-23 advantage in yards, and the Packers’ only scoring drive gained zero yards. The Lions ended up winning 34-20. Here are three reasons to worry about the Packers this week (the companion piece will be posted on Wednesday night):
1. Lions’ play-action success
Green Bay’s run defense has been an issue for years, and the Lions knew it. They ran 43 times in Week 4, for 211 yards. The 40-yard reception by receiver Kalif Raymond skewed the numbers, but on those other 42 rushes, the Packers allowed 4.1 YPC. David Montgomery ran 32 times for 121 yards, for an average of 3.8 YPC.
Theoretically, that’s not a bad run defense. But Detroit is physical, and they play with that mentality. They keep pounding, pounding, pounding. In the 4th quarter alone, the Lions had the ball for 1:17.
This brings us to the explosive part of Detroit’s offense: quarterback Jared Goff. Of the 32 qualified quarterbacks, Goff leads the NFL in play-action passing yardage, passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. Pro Football Focus also has him as the leader in play-action touchdowns (6) and interception-to-touchdown ratio (0:0). Of the nine QBs with 0:0 play-action INTs, Goff leads with the most touchdowns.
Defensive coordinator Joe Barry called them “sister plays.” “No matter who’s on the field, what formation they’re in, what kind of motion they’re using, they’ve got a run play, and then off of that run play they’ve got play-action passes, and I think they’ve done as well as anyone in the league in terms of having plays that look exactly like each other in the family,” Barry said.
In the first two seconds of the snap, it can be a run, play-action pass, or even build in screens. I think they really do a great job of that, and I think Jared is really good at making the mechanics of the play-action passes look the same.
Too much of a good thing
The Packers offense has been too one-dimensional in the last three games. In the first seven games, the offense ran the ball 39.4 percent of the time compared to 44.1 percent in the past three games. The Packers had 41 passes with sacks in Week 4 compared to 12 runs.
The question now is whether the Packers will be able to play with any kind of balance without Aaron Jones or Emanuel Wilson. A.J. Dillon will be backed up by Patrick Taylor, signed this week, and one or two on the practice squad, including Ellis Merriweather and James Robinson. The Lions have the sixth-ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing 3.76 yards per carry. “I think it all starts at the line of scrimmage,” said Dillon. “We have to make sure that we control that line, not just in terms of the offensive line but in terms of the running unit, the pass game, getting those extra yards and things like that.”
“I think any game you win up front, but you’ve got to give credit where credit is due. They’ve got a great pass rush over there. They’ve got a really good front seven. Anytime you’re going up against one of those teams in this league, you’ve got to have a plan for it and got to try to stay ahead of the chains.”
