BREAKING NEWS: ASIA DAESJARN, the halfback for the Parramatta Eels, has officially revealed his Super League destination.
NRL leaders Parramatta Eels have turned to the unfashionable offload, and it might just be working
Posted Fri 10 Jul 2020 at 11:01pm
Friday 10 Jul 2020 at 11:01pm
A man is tackled and throws the ball away on a rugby league field
Parramatta’s Junior Paulo leads the NRL in offloads.(AAP: Darren England)
Success in the modern NRL has rarely been built on the offload, but the Parramatta Eels seem to be constructing their premiership tilt on new foundations.
Key points:
Parramatta are top of the NRL, and they are also racking up more offloads than any team in recent memory
Traditionally offloading has not led to success in the NRL
The Roosters have also increased their offloads this season, particularly in wide areas
Since 2013, just one premiership winner — the Sharks in 2016 — averaged more than the league average in offloads, and the dominant Roosters have been among the most restrained in dumping the ball off during the previous two seasons.
But 2020 league leaders the Eels are turning to the “hit and spin” more than any team in recent memory.
Marauding Junior Paulo and his hard-running teammate Ryan Matterson are averaging about three hand-offs per game this season, a rate matched only by Newcastle’s David Klemmer.
Kane Evans, Shaun Lane and even Clint Gutherson have cracked double figures.
Junior Paulo, Señor Offload
Paulo is the finest offload proponent in the NRL today, having also led the league last year.
His ability to get his arms free in the tackle is superhuman; his confidence to make the play uncanny.
And his offload against the Panthers last month was barely believable.
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Junior Paulo is a magician in the rugby league trenches.
Focus on offloaders
Paulo’s prolific production has helped Parramatta dump the ball off at an extraordinary rate this season so far.
In fact, the Eels are offloading more than anyone else has done in the past seven years.
Their average of 16.9 offloads per match is four more than last season, and two more than any team has averaged in any season during this time. For reference, NRL sides tally fewer than 10 in a game on average.
It’s easy to enjoy the work of the likes of Paulo.
And, in theory, an offload gives a team a bonus chance to gain metres in a set.
But ABC analysis of results over the past seven years has found no obvious link between winning and raw offload tallies.
In that moment when a player looks to pass after contact, there’s a risk of a loose carry.
And players usually sacrifice getting to the ground for a quick play the ball if they’re looking to dump it off.
Take this season: the struggling Broncos and Titans are among the more prolific offloaders.
Eels’ method in madness
At Parramatta though, dumping it off appears to form part of a larger gameplan for coach Brad Arthur.
“Brad gives us a licence to play footy,” Paulo told NRL.com late last season.
“The style that we play comes off a lot of second-phase footy and I feel like that’s where we have our strike power coming from.”
The Eels have scored 12 tries in sets featuring an offload, around twice as much as the league average.
“The madness has a bit of method to it,” Paulo said.
Who offloads where
Records from NRL.com Stats pinpointing the location of offloads from the 2020 season show teams (all running right in the below visual) have different tendencies.
Each dot represents one offload. All teams are running right.
While Parramatta appear to have given licence to the likes of Paulo and Matterson to shovel it off in midfield and close to the try line, other teams like the Warriors are more conservative.
And the Roosters, well … to them the offload means something else entirely.
They are reluctant to offload in their own half, and instead prefer to take their risks down the flanks.
There’s also some evidence the premiers are looking to keep the ball moving more often. Their offloads per game has jumped from 7.8 in 2019 to 11.8 in 2020.
The offload kings
The players from Bondi have tallied close to 30 fewer offloads than Parramatta on the season, but they lead the competition in tries from sets that featured an offload, with 17.
Video of these Roosters’ tries is spectacular. But it jars with the tradition of a hulking forward cunningly setting up a second phase.
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They’re not your typical offloads, but Roosters’ backs are still racking them up in 2020.
The legends of big men like Steve “Blocker” Roach, Glenn Lazarus and Petero Civoniceva are intertwined with the offload.
These days it’s stout backs like Josh and Brett Morris, James Tedesco and Daniel Tupou who might have the most dangerous hand-offs of all.
But 2020 provides a perfect opportunity to see just how far Junior Paulo and the Eels can go.
Fully on board with the offload.
